Amid controversial and largely unsuccessful collective bargaining agreement negotiations, there has been minor progress. The universal DH has finally arrived as expected, but more surprisingly, there will be an MLB draft lottery going forward.
This isn’t something that will have a direct impact on MLB lines today. Yet, a draft lottery can change front office decisions league-wide, just as we’ve witnessed in the NBA. This is one of numerous MLB efforts attempting to curb tanking, something the MLBPA see as a major issue in the sport.
As of February 15th 2022, nothing is known about the all-important structure of the draft lottery. This is clearly crucial to know the sort of impact it will have, but regardless, there are some early pros and cons to introducing this system.
Pros of MLB Draft Lottery
Randomizing draft order should take away some of the desire to lose games. The NBA recently flattened the lottery odds, and with the introduction of the Play-In Tournament, has seen more teams looking to be competitive. Whereas losing 100 games as good as guarantees a top-three pick in the next year’s draft at the moment, a draft lottery can change this.
Of course, the effectiveness depends on the odds and how many teams are in the lottery. It’s likely any lottery will still give the worst teams a better chance of a high pick, and some organizations are bound to go down that route.
The main argument for a draft lottery is to limit the benefits of losing. Some MLB organizations have been willing to throw in the towel not just on a month or two of games, but for seasons at a time.
Cons of MLB Draft Lottery
On the other hand, a draft lottery alone isn’t necessarily going to change that much. Having a high pick isn’t as valuable in MLB as it is in the NBA or NFL. Lots of top five selections never make it to the Majors. Plenty of all-time greats have been drafted either late in the first round or way down in latter rounds.
When looking for league-wide competitiveness, too, a draft lottery can actually prove detrimental. If good teams start getting the top picks, how are struggling small-market franchises going to improve? Sure, perhaps the owners spend more money, but it isn’t realistic to expect the owners of the Royals or Athletics to sanction a payroll that can compete with the Yankees or Dodgers.
There’s also a risk this ends up as a distraction. With the MLBPA wanting clubs to spend more and prioritize winning, a draft lottery is a relatively small concession. A lot more is needed to make franchises try and win as many games as possible – if this is all the owners are willing to give up, it is not a good sign for the future of the sport or these ongoing negotiations.
Minimal Impact
Compared to the relative financial parity of its peers, MLB has a problem. There are 14 teams on course for a 2022 payroll of under $100 million. Five of those are below $50 million. At the other end, five are over $168 million.
A draft lottery is fun. It means teams aren’t necessarily rewarded for embracing losing, and could see star top prospects like Spencer Torkelson end up on teams that were actually trying to win in the previous season.
Ultimately, though, this is not enough to really change the balance of the league. A lottery alone will not make all those tanking franchises suddenly try and win.
