School Board Enrollment report projects decline, capacity concerns
Enrollment in Redondo Beach schools is trending upwards, but will soon level off and begin to trend downward by the 2022-’23 school year, according to a report presented to the Redondo Beach Unified School District Board of Education.
The report is based on transfers, projected birth rates, and residential development.
Historically, RBUSD enrollment has increased year-over-year. Enrollment for the 2016-’17 school year is 9,777. High school enrollment, which includes both Redondo Union and Redondo Shores high schools, tops out at 2,985 for the most recent school year, 2,466 of whom are at RUHS.
However, according to projections based on California Department of Public Health data, kindergarten enrollment is likely to begin falling, because of declines in Redondo Beach birth rates.
RBUSD enrollment is projected to top out at 10,519 students by the 2023-’24 school year.
“2020-’21 is the first year of some decline we’re projecting, driven by births, at the elementary school level,” consultant Larry Ferchaw said, resulting in a decline of about 381 students from today’s numbers.
The district is concerned about student capacity and is already at over capacity at Birney Elementary School. By 2026-27, it’s projected that RUHS will be 224 students over the school’s capacity.
The district is already addressing the issue by reducing outreach to Hermosa Beach middle school students, who have the option of attending Redondo Union or Mira Costa high schools.
“We’re beginning to have less of a sell with Hermosa,” said Superintendent Steven Keller. “We’re not as ‘publicity seeking’ as we once were, and we know plenty of people want to attend our district.”
Keller also noted that over the summer, the district created more classrooms at RUHS.
“For me, the elementary and middle schools are a bigger concern,” said board member Brad Serkin. “When we’re potentially over-capacity by 40 or 50 students, or more, I want to make sure we have a game plan. We can’t spread 100 kids over a few classrooms.”